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 大伙新年好。来，咱们也来测试一把是不是投机的料 |
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这段文章我还没看过。不能因为神马鸟毛不沾边的炭排放就否认气候转暖。 -- theoretical - (141 Byte) 2011-2-06 周日, 05:51 (464 reads) |
emperorfan
[博客]
年龄: 49
加入时间: 2010/02/05
文章: 2008
海归分: 814623
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作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
THOUGHTS：美元弱，商品期货稳中有升，随时调整，有新钱投入，轮涨跌，美国需要通胀刺激消费和借贷，同时迫使中国升值。 中国GDP上瘾，要遏制通胀又要保持经济增长，需求会影响期货价格，尤其是基本金属。目前无硬着陆迹象，还在继续为外汇储备着急，并试图削弱美元储备地位。（BTW，如果美国战略性停止出口粮食，哪些国家先起义？）
美国QE是围炉取暖解冻，但带动新星们火冒三丈发高烧。
有人说USD是泡，有人说RMB是泡，其实谁先爆，谁是泡。
期货又与消费互动，如油价太高，就遏制行驶需求。
虽跌，银，钯和铂，会由于经济回暖预期，表现好于金。金作为萧条的对冲功能日弱。
商品的投机气氛渐浓，随时可能反调，原因可能是中国等收紧银根，QE２缓行，美元走强，经济总体放缓，消费疲软等。
但REFLATION还能走很远。
新兴市场人口增长，中印的需求决定粮食市场的紧张，低段基本需求弹性小，利润率低，更反应强烈。中段必需品，但总量少，也能涨。
天气太波动，无法预测，但农业趋向全面转基因化，自然条件渐差（如蜜蜂死亡和洪水冰雪干旱），加强水利用和可耕地，及化肥等都不可避免。
从硬度上次小崩，可见不能自足粮食是高增长新星市场的内伤。新星的消费中，粮食能源比例较大，也是伤。人口增长太快，耕地不够绝对伤：PAKISTAN，EGYPT。
（反面是老化负增长：UKRAINE，RUSSIA，JAPAN，GERMANY）
（农产品涨价在中国也起了财富向生产者农民转移并提高其消费的作用。希望能有助于经济平衡。）
去年9月开始， 我对农产，和基本金属很乐观，现在谨慎乐观。基本面再正确，热钱冲进来了，那就撤。
剪报如下，自取所需
On the supply side: soil erosion, aquifer depletion, the loss of cropland to nonfarm uses, the diversion of irrigation water to cities, the plateauing of crop yields in agriculturally advanced countries, and -- due to climate change -- crop-withering heat waves and melting mountain glaciers and ice sheets.
For 30 years, the price of agriculture has collapsed it fell by 90% in real terms so we haven’t invested in the sector. As a world society, we are now acutely vulnerable in the business of feeding ourselves because we have not spent enough and organised the production of agriculture in a manner that is appropriate.
Asia is putting on fantastic economic growth and if China or Asia does not have a great recession, we will have pressure on the food supply,’HENDRY（AUG2010）
According to the IMF’s very conservative measurement, which peg US inflation at just 1.5%, the end of year inflation is 4.6% in China, 3.7% in the UK, 5.9% in Brazil, 8.8% in Russia, 8.3% in India, 4.4% in Mexico, 6.4% in Turkey, 5.7% in Indonesia, 10.9% in Argentina, 11.9% in Iran, 26.9% in Venezuela, 10.4% in Egypt, 11.8% in Nigeria, 15.5% in Pakistan… Judging from who’s rioting and who’s overthrowing their government I’d say about 10% is the point at which you may want to consider doubling up your security detail before you head downtown.
US spends 9% of its income on food, which is among the lowest percentage of any people anywhere at any time in history.
The same is not true in India or China or many emerging markets. In China, people spend 50% of every incremental dollar on food. And in India, it’s more like 70%.
The drought in China’s Northern Province is currently the worst it has been in the last century. Beijing is at 88 days and counting since rain. The change in weather pattern, to a wet one is not expected soon.
The drought on shore having impacted 17% of the winter wheat crop already. 90% of the nations wheat supply is grown in the winter, making this springs rains extremely important.
A billion people are going hungry with another billion people suffering from “hidden hunger”, whilst a billion people are over-consuming
The global rain patterns are expected to stay in a La Nina phase for a few more months exacerbating the water drought in China. If the rains do not return in the spring, China will have to find new sources of wheat to purchase for its population by this fall.
The world has enough food for its population currently, but after the fires in Russia last summer, the flooding in Australia this winter, and now the on going drought in China is starting to drain the worlds reserves. If the crops of 2011 are sub par or worse damaged due to weather related conditions, the planet could be looking at a real famine issue in 2012.
作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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