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 【但愿是假的】福布斯：中国大陆不是它所吹嘘的那样ZT【中英对照纸老虎？】 |
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福布斯：中国大陆不是它所吹嘘的那样
京港台时间：2009/6/28 消息来源：星岛环球网 网友评论 6 条
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福布斯：中国大陆不是它所吹嘘的那样
得过诺贝尔奖的经济学家阿罗（Kenneth Arrow）在回答哪个国家和地区是管理最佳的经济体时，点名中国大陆、台湾和韩国。这种观点与那种普遍持有的、认为中国大陆是成功的“东亚模式”的最新最大案例的观点相一致。尽管确实有些相似之处，但眼见的也可能是假象。
中国大陆经济和社会的性质、目的及国家角色使之与那些成功的东亚邻居有所区别。事实上，差异如此之大，令人怀疑中国大陆是否能够品尝到日本、韩国和台湾所享受到的、成功的现代化成果。
那些经济体成功的关键在于发展活跃的组织、竞争以及私营企业起飞所需要的条件。尽管是国家指引下的资本主义，而且犯过错，但政府最终帮忙为未来私企及资本主义活动奠定基础，特别是提供广泛且开放的经济机会、法治、财产权以及社会和政治稳定。
中国大陆难道不也是做这些事情实现增长吗？多数西方评论员关注中国大陆出口的成功以及中国大陆作为世界工厂的崛起。但给中国大陆增长贡献更大的，实际上是国内固定投资，在2008年，这种投资占GDP的比例超过50%，在这方面，中国大陆是出格的。以台湾为例，在增长率为8%的高速增长时期，资本投资从来没有超过GDP的30%。
令人惊奇的不仅仅是这种对固定投资的高度依赖。资本的流向十分重要。中国大陆的不同寻常之处在于，银行贷款（来自公民流入国有银行的存款）构成全国投资活动的大约80%。
国家控制的企业生成四分之一到三分之一的国家产出，但拿到超过75%的资本，而且这个数字还在上升。中国大陆国有行业拥有全国近三分之二的固定资产。这和韩国、台湾及日本的情况相反。在六七十年代，这些地区的私营行业拿到超过四分之三的资本。
如果国家控制的企业学会创新和适应时代，那么对它们的偏心也是可接受的。不幸的是，除了少数中央管理的国有企业，情况并非如此。
如此看来，中国大陆整体资本应用效率较印度低一倍。世界银行的数据显示，大约三分之一的国有企业最近的投资为零回报或者负回报。尽管国企可以巩固执政地位，但对国家而言代价沉重。
不良贷款的经济代价超过一万亿美元，而且与日俱增。但社会代价及影响更大。一个导致经济机会及财富聚拢在少数人手中的经济制度，造就不安全不稳定的政治经济。
难怪中国大陆的基尼系数从八十年代的0.25左右上升到九十年代的0.38。如今的基尼系数大约为0.5，为亚洲最高。而从六十到九十年代，处于快速增长期的韩国和台湾的基尼系数分别在0.34和0.29左右。
中国大陆显然不会变成日本、台湾和韩国。像俄罗斯、巴西这样庞大而步履蹒跚的经济体或者更能准确地预示它的未来。
本文网址：https://news.backchina.com/2009/6/28/46690.html
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The U.S. “Forbes”: China is not as it appears
Arrow won the Nobel Prize-winning economists (Kenneth Arrow) in answer to which countries and regions are best-managed economies, the division in China, Taiwan and South Korea. And that this point of view widely held that China was a success, “East Asian model” of the latest cases of the most consistent point of view. Although there are similarities, but also may be seeing a false impression.
China’s economic and social nature, purpose and bring it into line with the national role of the successful East Asian neighbors differ. In fact, such great variations, it is doubtful whether China will try to go to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan enjoy a successful outcome of modernization.
Those economies, the key to success lies in the development of active organizations, the private sector competition and the conditions required for take-off. Albeit under the guidance of the capitalist countries, but also guilty of fault, but ultimately help the Government for the future activities of private enterprises and lay the foundation of capitalism, especially in providing a wide range of economic opportunities and opening up, the rule of law, property rights and social and political stability.
Does not China have done to achieve growth? Most Western commentators concerned about the success of China’s exports and China’s rise as a world factory. However, the contribution to growth in China is much bigger, in fact, domestic fixed investment in 2008, the proportion of GDP accounted for more than 50%, in this regard, China is unusual. In Taiwan, a growth rate of 8% in the high growth period, capital investment has never been more than 30 percent of GDP.
Surprisingly this is not only a high degree of reliance on fixed investment. The importance of capital flows. Unusual in China lies in the fact that bank loans (from the inflow of citizens of the state-owned banks) national investment activities constitute about 80%.
State-controlled enterprises to generate a quarter to one-third of national output, but get more than 75% of the capital, and this figure is rising. China’s state-owned industries have nearly two-thirds of the fixed assets. This and the Republic of Korea, Taiwan and Japan’s situation is the opposite. In the sixties and seventies, these areas get more than three-quarters of private sector capital.
If the state-controlled enterprises Institute of innovation and keep abreast of the times, it is for their eccentric acceptable. Unfortunately, apart from a few centrally managed state-owned enterprises is not the case.
It seems that the application of China’s overall capital efficiency of the Indian lower than doubled. World Bank data shows that about one-third of state-owned enterprises to invest the most recent return to zero or negative returns. Although the status of state-owned enterprises can consolidate power, but a heavy price countries.
The economic costs of non-performing loans more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars, and growing. But the social costs and greater impact. A wealth of economic opportunities and a small number of people gather together in the hands of the economic system, creating insecurity in the political and economic instability.
It is no wonder that China’s Gini coefficient of 0.25 from the eighties or nineties rose to 0.38. Today, the Gini coefficient of about 0.5, the highest in Asia. From 60 to the nineties, a period of rapid growth in Korea and Taiwan, respectively, the Gini coefficient of around 0.34 and 0.29.
China will not become clear that Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. As Russia, Brazil and such a large economy faltering, or more accurately indicate its future.
Author: John Lee
https://currencyabc.com/?p=70
作者：The Fifth Season 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由The Fifth Season于2009-6-30 周二, 07:29修改，总共修改了2次
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 【但愿是假的】福布斯：中国大陆不是它所吹嘘的那样ZT【中英对照纸老虎？】 -- The Fifth Season - (5175 Byte) 2009-6-28 周日, 14:17 (3749 reads)
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