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 Continued discussion on Andy Xie's "Twin Bubble" |
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BigSwingingD
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头衔: 海归中校
声望: 学员
加入时间: 2004/02/20
文章: 303
海归分: 57175
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作者：BigSwingingD 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
I'd like to continue the discussion regarding Andy Xie's
"Twin Bubble" article. Sure China risks a hard landing in
its investment bubble, but what will be its impact on people
outside China? It will be very deflationary, it will reign
in the commodity price, Chinese labor will get cheaper, and
that means U.S. interest will stay low or maybe even lower.
Haigui will suffer.
But will it prick the US housing bubble? Remember real
estate is a local business subject to numerous government
regulation limiting its supply. There might be bubbles
propping here and there, but a nationwide property price
melt-down in the U.S. will be extremely unlikely. Capital
from pricked bubble economy elsewhere have to park at some
place. America is still the largest
market with the least impediment / cost to do business,
and in the best position to capture capital outflows elsewhere.
The upshot? China, very risky. America? I am still neutral.
I would be net buyers of REIT stocks (which have already dropped
more than 15% as a group in the last 6 trading days, and could
drop another 30 ~ 50% from current levels ) and sleeping
on my 7% plus yield. 
作者：BigSwingingD 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Continued discussion on Andy Xie's "Twin Bubble" -- BigSwingingD - (1187 Byte) 2004-4-13 周二, 06:33 (1717 reads) - 再来一篇 -- reiga - (10650 Byte) 2004-4-13 周二, 08:07 (317 reads)
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